A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “Ukraine-Russia war”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander explains why dismissing warnings just because previous similar warnings were wrong is a dangerous fallacy, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time.
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.
Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics.
Scott reviews recent changes in prediction markets covering the Ukraine war, nuclear risk, AI development, and other current events.