A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “Philip Tetlock”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.
Scott Alexander examines the underutilization of prediction aggregation platforms like Metaculus, exploring potential reasons and expressing surprise at their lack of widespread adoption.
Scott Alexander reviews 'Superforecasting' by Philip Tetlock, discussing the traits of highly accurate predictors and the book's validation of rationalist techniques.
Scott explains the Implicit Association Test (IAT), which measures unconscious associations by testing reaction times when categorizing concepts, and argues it's better understood as measuring distances in conceptual space rather than as a simple test for prejudice.