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probability theory

Essays tagged “probability theory”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on probability theory

2 essays

Nov 22, 2024ACX

Against The Generalized Anti-Caution Argument

Scott Alexander explains why dismissing warnings just because previous similar warnings were wrong is a dangerous fallacy, particularly for risks that naturally increase over time.

14 min read 2,033 words

AI safety Biden cognitive bias

Aug 6, 2013SSC

On first looking into Chapman’s “Pop Bayesianism”

Scott Alexander defends Bayesianism as a valuable epistemology, contrasting it with absolutist and nihilistic approaches, and argues for its usefulness in complex reasoning.

14 min read 2,110 words

belief updating epistemology philosophy