The independent Scott Alexander archive
Essays, arguments, and unexpected connections. An independent archive of Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex Ten, and LessWrong.
Scott Alexander responds to comments on polyamory, providing data and addressing concerns about relationship satisfaction, child-rearing, and abuse risks in poly relationships.
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.
Scott Alexander tests a hypothesis about gender integration moderating political views using his survey data, finding no significant effect of sibling gender on political attitudes.
Scott Alexander explores how love embodies libertarian principles and resists regulation, proposing it as a model for libertarian thinking.
Scott Alexander analyzes the astronomical costs and resources needed for future AI models, sparked by Sam Altman's reported $7 trillion fundraising goal.
Scott Alexander announces the winners of ACX Grants 2024, covering a diverse range of projects from medical research to policy advocacy.
Scott Alexander explores how evolutionary processes explain the polygenic structure of schizophrenia and other complex traits, addressing concerns about genetic research and implications for future genetic interventions.
Scott Alexander argues against judging polyamory based on memoirs or advice books, as these are often written by unrepresentative individuals.
Scott Alexander argues that schizophrenia should be described as predominantly genetic, addressing counterarguments and emphasizing the importance of this perspective for prevention strategies.
Scott Alexander examines how investigative journalism can target unpopular individuals or groups, using recent examples to illustrate the potential chilling effects and biases in media coverage.
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.
Scott Alexander proposes that political hyperpartisanship might be a form of trauma, comparing PTSD symptoms to behaviors observed in political extremists.
Scott Alexander uses simulations to explain why seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia are misleading.
Scott Alexander examines the ethical implications of AI potentially replacing humans, arguing for careful consideration in AI development rather than blind acceptance.
Scott Alexander's monthly links post covers diverse topics from AI developments and genetic research to historical anecdotes and local news, with a mix of serious analysis and humor.
Scott Alexander conducts his yearly subscription drive for Astral Codex Ten, listing benefits and unlocking some subscriber-only content to encourage sign-ups.
Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions.
Scott Alexander reviews a study on AI sleeper agents, discussing implications for AI safety and the potential for deceptive AI behavior.
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his capitalism vs charity post, clarifying his argument and addressing various counterpoints and suggested capitalist charities.
Scott reviews two papers on honest AI: one on manipulating AI honesty vectors, another on detecting AI lies through unrelated questions.
Scott Alexander compares the marginal impact of capitalism vs. charity, finding that traditional charity often seems more effective despite capitalism's historical success.
Scott Alexander proposes a theory of depression as a recalibrated happiness set point, drawing parallels with fever and anorexia, to explain why depressed people seek out sad stimuli.
Scott Alexander recounts his journey to fatherhood, blending personal experiences with broader reflections on progress, rationality, and the future his newborn twins will face.
Scott Alexander satirizes Silicon Valley culture through a fictional house party where everyone is obsessed with Sam Altman's firing from OpenAI.
Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Grants program, detailing its structure, funding, and new optional 'impact market' component for charitable and scientific projects.
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