A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “COVID-19”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott defends liberalism against claims it has failed by explaining that happiness scales logarithmically with income, so our 225x wealth increase since medieval times correctly predicts the 3-point happiness gain we've actually seen, and recent declines are due to COVID rather than systemic failure.
Scott argues that projects attempting to "solve debate" through argument mapping or similar technologies are fundamentally doomed because real arguments don't work like logical syllogisms, people don't actually want structured debates, and there's no evidence this approach has ever worked.
Scott presents evidence that COVID-19 did kill approximately 1.2 million Americans, addressing skeptics by analyzing excess death data and addressing common counterarguments.
Scott reflects on how COVID-19's massive death toll of 1.2 million Americans has been overshadowed in public discourse by more controversial but less significant aspects of the pandemic.
Scott analyzes poor NAEP test scores and explores whether COVID school closures, systemic changes in education standards, or other factors are responsible for the decline.
Scott analyzes the results of the 2025 ACX reader survey, revealing interesting patterns in reader demographics, beliefs, and behaviors, with some surprising contrasts between vocal commenters and the general readership.
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias.
Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions.
Scott Alexander responds to critiques of his 2021 ivermectin analysis, acknowledging some errors but maintaining his conclusion that ivermectin likely doesn't work for COVID-19.
Scott Alexander presents a diverse collection of interesting links and news items from July, covering topics from linguistics and AI to politics and economics.
Scott Alexander critiques Ben Hoffman's arguments about Vitamin D dosing, maintaining that it is primarily a bone-related chemical with limited evidence for other benefits.
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.
Scott Alexander reviews 'Don't Look Up', critiquing its contradictory narratives about trusting science and experts vs. outsiders.
Scott Alexander shares 34 diverse and interesting links on topics ranging from historical curiosities to current scientific debates, with brief commentaries on each.
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his 'Diseasonality' article, exploring various aspects of disease seasonality across different viruses and geographical locations.
Scott provides updates on efforts to get FDA approval for fluvoxamine as a COVID-19 treatment and reports on the early approval of Paxlovid.
Scott Alexander argues that doctors should prescribe fluvoxamine for COVID-19 despite FDA inaction, urging them to overcome discomfort with off-label use when evidence supports it.
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including Google's internal market and Metaculus' 'fortified essays', while discussing challenges and applications in various fields.
Scott Alexander criticizes the misleading use of 'no evidence' in science communication and suggests more nuanced alternatives.
Scott Alexander examines theories for disease seasonality, proposing a dynamic model where seasonal factors entrain waning immunity cycles.
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction market forecasts about the Omicron COVID-19 variant, discussing its potential transmissibility, lethality, and prevalence.
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his ivermectin article, discussing criticisms, the worms hypothesis, vaccine skepticism, and journalism quality.
Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections.
Scott examines new techniques in forecasting and prediction markets, including reciprocal scoring and iterated markets, while highlighting the accuracy of prediction markets compared to traditional media.