Astral Codex Ten
Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
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Scott provides a real-world example of how the phrase 'no evidence' can be misused in science reporting, contrasting it with a prediction market's more nuanced response.
Summary from Read Scott Alexander; separate from the original essay.The day after I wrote The Phrase “No Evidence” Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication, FT published this article:
Like many uses of “no evidence”, they meant that one particular study of this complicated question had failed to reject the null hypothesis.
Here’s what happened to Metaculus’ prediction tournament when the same study came out:
The consensus prediction dropped from 72% chance that it was less lethal, to 63% chance. But it quickly recovered, and is now up to 80%.
This is an unusually clear example of the difference between classical and Bayesian ways of thinking.
Written by Scott Alexander. Support the writing →
Source snapshot: 2026-10-19. 88 likes · 75 comments; counts at capture, no local voting or comments. Listen to the podcast externally ↗