A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “future scenarios”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040.
Scott Alexander discusses various scenarios of AI takeover based on the Compute-Centric Framework, exploring gradual power shifts and potential conflicts between humans and AI factions.
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to comments on his review of 'What We Owe The Future', addressing debates around population ethics, longtermism, and moral philosophy.
Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes.
A satirical future op-ed argues that not giving children 'super-enhancement gene therapy' is child abuse, mirroring current pro-vaccination arguments.