A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “China-US relations”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040.
Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts.
A satirical dialogue showing how opponents of AI pause proposals often ignore that advocates explicitly call for bilateral agreements with China, not unilateral pauses.
Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore.
Scott shares an open letter urging the NIH to spend $5 billion in allocated but unspent research funds before the fiscal year deadline.
Scott Alexander reviews 'America Against America', a 1988 book by Chinese political scientist Wang Huning, analyzing his observations of US society and institutions after a brief stay in Iowa.
Scott examines why the AI safety community isn't more actively opposing AI development, exploring the complex dynamics between AI capabilities and safety efforts.
A review of Peter Zeihan's 'The Accidental Superpower', which predicts global disorder and American preeminence based on geographic and demographic advantages.