ACX
MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy
Scott Alexander critiques Tyler Cowen's use of the 'Safe Uncertainty Fallacy' in discussing AI risk, arguing that uncertainty doesn't justify complacency.
14 min read 2,052 words
A thread through the archive
uncertainty
Essays tagged “uncertainty”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on uncertainty
3 essaysSSC
Ozy vs. Scott on Charity Baskets
Ozy argues for diversifying charitable donations, while Scott counters that focusing on the single most efficient charity at any given time is more effective.
14 min read 2,153 words
SSC
On first looking into Chapman’s “Pop Bayesianism”
Scott Alexander defends Bayesianism as a valuable epistemology, contrasting it with absolutist and nihilistic approaches, and argues for its usefulness in complex reasoning.
14 min read 2,110 words