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probabilistic thinking

Essays tagged “probabilistic thinking”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on probabilistic thinking

2 essays

Sep 29, 2021ACX

Book Review: The Scout Mindset

Scott Alexander reviews 'The Scout Mindset' by Julia Galef, a book on rationality that emphasizes seeking truth over defending beliefs and addresses both intellectual and emotional aspects of clear thinking.

35 min read 5,421 words

Feb 7, 2016SSC

List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of “Superforecasting”

Scott Alexander shares and comments on highlights from Philip Tetlock's 'Superforecasting', discussing forecasting, cognitive biases, and organizational effectiveness.

29 min read 4,490 words

cognitive bias evidence-based medicine forecasting