A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “2016 US election”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott examines the tension between correcting false claims (like that crime is actually up but hidden) and being accused of deflecting from related legitimate concerns (like disorder), using his recent crime posts as an example.
Scott Alexander warns against forming strong heuristics based on limited data, using examples from AI research, elections, and campaign strategies to illustrate the pitfalls of this approach.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years.
Scott Alexander argues that the 2016 US election outcome shouldn't drastically change our understanding of politics, given how close the race is.
A links roundup post covering recent developments in science, medicine, psychology and politics, with particular focus on research replication issues and the 2016 election season.