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Iran

Essays tagged “Iran”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on Iran

2 essays

Mantic Monday: Groundhog Day

Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.

36 min read 5,499 words

He Kept Us Out Of War?

Scott Alexander argues that, contrary to his reputation as an isolationist, Trump's statements suggest he may be more likely to engage in military interventions than Clinton, who represents a more predictable foreign policy approach.

17 min read 2,606 words