A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “overconfidence”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations.
Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.
Scott Alexander presents comprehensive results from the 2013 Less Wrong community survey, covering demographics, beliefs, and behavioral patterns of 1636 respondents.
Scott presents comprehensive results from the 2012 Less Wrong Survey of 1195 respondents, covering demographics, beliefs, IQ measures, and a concerning calibration test showing poor performance at avoiding overconfidence bias.
Scott uses self-handicapping studies to argue that people can hold a biased belief on the surface and an accurate one underneath, much like belief in belief.