ACX
Lifeboat Games And Backscratchers Clubs
Scott Alexander uses thought experiments to explore how people form coalitions and support networks, relating these to real-world social and political dynamics.
21 min read 3,120 words
A thread through the archive
decision making
Essays tagged “decision making”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on decision making
28 essaysACX
In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
Scott Alexander defends using probabilities for hard-to-model events, arguing they aid clear communication and decision-making even in uncertain domains.
23 min read 3,438 words
ACX
Your Book Review: The Laws of Trading
A review of 'The Laws of Trading' by Agustin Lebron, examining trading principles and their broader applications to decision-making and life.
44 min read 6,685 words
ACX
Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.
14 min read 2,145 words
ACX
Prediction Market FAQ
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.
84 min read 12,964 words
ACX
What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
Scott Alexander examines various interpretations of rationality, concluding it might be best understood as 'the study of study' - a meta-level examination of truth-seeking methods.
23 min read 3,496 words
ACX
Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
Scott Alexander reviews a dialogue between Yudkowsky and Ngo on AI alignment difficulty, exploring the challenges of creating safe superintelligent AI.
33 min read 5,013 words
ACX
Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
Scott Alexander proposes a Bayesian theory of willpower as a process of weighing evidence from different mental processes to determine actions.
13 min read 1,995 words
ACX
Contra Weyl On Technocracy
Scott Alexander critiques Glen Weyl's anti-technocracy essay, arguing for a more nuanced view of formal mechanisms in decision-making and defending rationalist approaches.
36 min read 5,537 words
SSC
Probabilities Without Models
Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations.
11 min read 1,566 words
SSC
The General Factor Of Correctness
Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields.
18 min read 2,739 words
SSC
Bicameral Reasoning
Scott Alexander explores 'bicameral reasoning', comparing how we often weigh issues equally (like the US Senate) instead of proportionally to their importance (like the House), leading to potentially skewed decision-making.
9 min read 1,249 words
SSC
Ground Morality In Party Politics
Scott proposes adapting DW-Nominate, a political spectrum analysis tool, to study morality through real-life decisions, exploring its potential implications and limitations.
12 min read 1,803 words
SSC
The Economics Of Art And The Art Of Economics
Scott Alexander argues for selling Detroit's museum art based on a cost-benefit analysis, emphasizing the value of quantitative thinking in decision-making.
4 min read 581 words
SSC
Searching For One-Sided Tradeoffs
Scott Alexander discusses the concept of one-sided tradeoffs, using examples from college admissions to life hacks, and suggests ways to find opportunities for 'free' gains in various decisions.
18 min read 2,790 words
LW
Rationalists Are Less Credulous But Better At Taking Ideas Seriously
Scott uses Less Wrong survey data to show that experienced rationalists are actually less likely than newcomers to believe cryonics will work, yet more likely to sign up for it, demonstrating that rationalist training teaches people to act on beliefs rather than making them more credulous.
7 min read 977 words
SSC
If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics
Scott Alexander argues for the value of using quantification and made-up statistics in decision-making, even when imperfect, as they often outperform intuition and reveal biases in our thinking.
10 min read 1,538 words
SSC
People! It turns out capitalism is actually a thing!
Scott Alexander describes how Amazon Prime has simplified and improved his product selection process, expressing surprise at its effectiveness and reflecting on feeling like an active economic participant.
6 min read 883 words
LW
Write about risk and decision-making, win money
Scott announces an essay competition on 'risk' with a 200 euro first prize, noting the organizer's interest in probability calibration and cognitive biases.
1 min read 59 words
LW
Rational Home Buying
Scott offers evidence-based advice for buying a home, covering common psychological pitfalls like underestimating commute times, availability bias, and comparison shopping effects.
14 min read 2,123 words
LW
Prospect Theory: A Framework for Understanding Cognitive Biases
Scott explains prospect theory, Kahneman and Tversky's model of how people actually make decisions, showing how its value and probability weighting functions predict numerous cognitive biases including loss aversion, scope insensitivity, and framing effects.
8 min read 1,202 words
LW
Techniques for probability estimates
Scott describes six techniques for translating vague probability feelings into accurate numerical estimates, explaining the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
13 min read 1,936 words
LW
Blue- and Yellow-Tinted Choices
Scott explains how the brain judges values relatively rather than absolutely, using optical illusions as an analogy for cognitive biases in decision-making.
9 min read 1,359 words
LW
AndrewH's observation and opportunity costs
Scott argues that opportunity costs should be calculated based on what you'll realistically do with resources, not on theoretical optimal alternatives, using examples from cryonics spending, NASA budgets, and charitable giving.
4 min read 513 words
LW
Shut Up And Guess
Scott calculates that on exams penalizing wrong answers at half the reward for correct ones, guessing always has positive expected value, but none of his intelligent classmates would accept this logic despite clear explanations.
11 min read 1,700 words