A thread through the archive

Bayes' Theorem

Essays tagged “Bayes' Theorem”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on Bayes' Theorem

2 essays

Nov 7, 2024ACX

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.

20 min read 2,993 words

May 2, 2013SSC

If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics

Scott Alexander argues for the value of using quantification and made-up statistics in decision-making, even when imperfect, as they often outperform intuition and reveal biases in our thinking.

10 min read 1,538 words

Bayes' Theorem bias CFAR