A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “betting”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.
Scott Alexander won his three-year bet on AI progress in image generation compositionality within three months, demonstrating unexpectedly rapid AI advancement.
Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering.
Scott Alexander's bet about readers misinterpreting an article on economists' views on school vouchers is settled through two surveys, confirming his argument.
Scott Alexander argues that a New York Times article misrepresented economists' views on school vouchers, offering evidence and proposing a bet to prove the article was misleading.
Scott describes six techniques for translating vague probability feelings into accurate numerical estimates, explaining the strengths and weaknesses of each method.
Using a haunted mansion thought experiment, Scott argues that one mind can hold separate levels of belief about ghosts: what it professes, what it bets on, and what it fears.