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lead-crime hypothesis

Essays tagged “lead-crime hypothesis”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on lead-crime hypothesis

2 essays

Feb 18, 2026ACX

Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care

Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline.

17 min read 2,566 words

Feb 14, 2015SSC

How Likely Are Multifactorial Trends?

Scott Alexander questions the plausibility of multifactorial explanations for trends, using the US crime rate decline as an example, and seeks literature on comparing single-factor vs multi-factor explanations.

5 min read 680 words

crime rates incarceration lead-crime hypothesis