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financial markets

Essays tagged “financial markets”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on financial markets

2 essays

Jul 2, 2026ACX

The AI Superforecasters Are Here

Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.

39 min read 5,984 words

AI alignment AI capabilities AI forecasting

Mar 1, 2021ACX

Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy

Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.

12 min read 1,745 words

economics financial markets forecasting