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Brier score

Essays tagged “Brier score”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on Brier score

2 essays

Aug 3, 2026ACX

Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

25 min read 3,865 words

AI capabilities AI forecasting AI progress

Jan 29, 2011LW

Looking for information on scoring calibration

Scott asks whether there's an accepted method for measuring calibration separately from domain knowledge, noting that common scoring rules conflate the two.

2 min read 221 words

Brier score calibration measurement