A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “superforecasters”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott examines forecasts about a plague death at a Russian lab, finding that top human and AI forecasters all assign very low probabilities (under 1%) to a significant outbreak, demonstrating the value of technical forecasting over mainstream reporting.
The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets.
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy.
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.
Scott Alexander reviews 'Superforecasting' by Philip Tetlock, discussing the traits of highly accurate predictors and the book's validation of rationalist techniques.