A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “FutureSearch”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott examines forecasts about a plague death at a Russian lab, finding that top human and AI forecasters all assign very low probabilities (under 1%) to a significant outbreak, demonstrating the value of technical forecasting over mainstream reporting.
Scott examines the rise of AI superforecasters that now match or exceed top human forecasters, explores how they work and their current performance, and analyzes implications for decision-making, prediction markets, and the future role of AI opinions.
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.