ACX
Who Predicted 2023?
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
19 min read 2,907 words
A thread through the archive
wisdom of crowds
Essays tagged “wisdom of crowds”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on wisdom of crowds
4 essaysACX
Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.
14 min read 2,145 words
ACX
Who Predicted 2022?
Scott Alexander analyzes results from a 2022 prediction contest, discussing top performers and methods for improving forecast accuracy.
24 min read 3,720 words
SSC
SSC Journal Club: Expert Prediction Of Experiments
A study on expert prediction of behavioral economics experiments finds that experts have only a slight advantage over non-experts, suggesting that a separate 'rationality' skill may be more important than specific expertise.
12 min read 1,729 words