SSC
Fallacies Of Reversed Moderation
Scott Alexander describes 'fallacies of reversed moderation,' where moderate positions are misinterpreted as extreme opposites of the consensus view.
5 min read 775 words
A thread through the archive
AI risk
Essays tagged “AI risk”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on AI risk
48 essaysSSC
Maybe The Real Superintelligent AI Is Extremely Smart Computers
Scott Alexander criticizes Ted Chiang's article that compares AI risk to capitalism, arguing that the analogy is flawed and the reasoning behind it is unsound.
12 min read 1,736 words
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Links 9/17: HURLy-bURLy
Scott Alexander shares interesting links on diverse topics including Russian life comparisons, AI developments, scientific discoveries, cultural evolution, and various research findings, with brief commentary on each.
14 min read 2,125 words
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Two Kinds Of Caution
Scott criticizes an article downplaying AI risks in favor of mundane technologies, arguing this represents misplaced caution given AI's potential existential threat.
13 min read 1,903 words
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SSC Journal Club: AI Timelines
Scott analyzes a new survey of AI researchers, showing diverse opinions on AI timelines and risks, with many acknowledging potential dangers but few prioritizing safety research.
16 min read 2,467 words
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Learning To Love Scientific Consensus
Scott Alexander examines his evolving view on scientific consensus, realizing it's more reliable and self-correcting than he previously thought.
40 min read 6,075 words
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G.K. Chesterton On AI Risk
A fictional G.K. Chesterton essay defends AI risk concerns against criticisms, arguing that seemingly fantastical ideas often become reality and that contemplating the infinite leads to practical progress.
15 min read 2,183 words
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How Does Recent AI Progress Affect The Bostromian Paradigm?
Scott Alexander examines how recent AI progress in neural networks might challenge the Bostromian paradigm of AI risk, exploring potential implications for AI goal alignment and motivation systems.
15 min read 2,240 words
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AI Persuasion Experiment Results
Scott Alexander's experiment tested how different essays affect people's concerns about AI risk, finding a modest but persistent increase in concern after reading.
10 min read 1,429 words
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AI Persuasion Experiment
Scott Alexander is running an experiment to test the effectiveness of persuasive essays about AI risk, asking readers to participate by reading an essay and answering questions.
2 min read 243 words
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Should AI Be Open?
Scott Alexander argues that OpenAI's open-source strategy for AI development could be dangerous, potentially risking human extinction if AI progresses rapidly.
28 min read 4,288 words
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Probabilities Without Models
Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations.
11 min read 1,566 words
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On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.
30 min read 4,625 words
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Figure/Ground Illusions
Scott Alexander discusses how figure/ground illusions in ideological debates can make balanced representation appear biased, using examples from effective altruism and AI risk.
8 min read 1,155 words
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Stop Adding Zeroes
Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction, arguing that Matthews misuses probabilities and that his logic could also undermine other effective altruist causes.
17 min read 2,492 words
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No Time Like The Present For AI Safety Work
Scott argues for the importance of starting AI safety research now, presenting key problems and reasons why early work is crucial.
31 min read 4,792 words
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AI Researchers On AI Risk
Scott Alexander provides evidence that many prominent AI researchers are concerned about AI risk, contrary to claims in some popular articles.
36 min read 5,524 words
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No Physical Substrate, No Problem
Scott Alexander refutes the idea that an AI without a physical body couldn't impact the real world, presenting various scenarios where it could gain power and influence.
12 min read 1,783 words
LW
2014 Survey Results
Scott presents the results of the 2014 Less Wrong survey covering demographics, beliefs, community participation, and various psychological measures from 1503 respondents.
32 min read 4,809 words
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Tumblr on MIRI
The post analyzes a debate about the effectiveness of MIRI, an AI safety organization, focusing on critiques of their academic output and defenses of their outreach efforts.
49 min read 7,446 words
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If The Media Reported On Other Dangers Like It Does AI Risk
Scott satirizes media reporting on AI risk by presenting exaggerated or misrepresented coverage of other potential dangers, highlighting issues in risk reporting.
3 min read 402 words
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Don’t Fear The Filter
Scott Alexander argues against several popular Great Filter explanations, emphasizing that the true Filter must be more consistent and thorough than common x-risks or alien interventions.
13 min read 1,909 words
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Emotionally Valent Links Post
Scott shares emotionally charged thoughts on various topics, including education, relationships, free speech, rape statistics, medical residency, and a humorous Hitler anecdote.
9 min read 1,298 words