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2,008 essays

Superintelligence FAQ

Scott explains why superintelligent AI poses serious risks, how a 'fast takeoff' could leave insufficient time to solve safety problems, and why even simple-sounding goals could lead to catastrophic outcomes without proper alignment research.

54 min read 8,281 words

The Extinction Tournament

Scott Alexander analyzes the surprisingly low existential risk estimates from a recent forecasting tournament, particularly for AI risk, and explains why he only partially updates his own higher estimates.

28 min read 4,212 words

Nash Equilibria and Schelling Points

Scott explains Nash equilibria (outcomes where no player regrets their strategy given the other's choice) and Schelling points (focal points that help coordinate between multiple equilibria), using examples ranging from meeting a partner to military strategy to show how these game theory concepts apply to real-world coordination problems.

When Truth Isn't Enough

Scott distinguishes between a statement's denotation (factual content) and connotation (emotional implications), showing how technically true statements can mislead through subtext, and proposes ADBOC as a response technique.

7 min read 1,034 words