A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “AI timelines”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott provides detailed probabilistic timelines and beliefs about AGI development, AI safety, geopolitics, and future outcomes, with his median expectation being AGI in 2031 and 20% probability of existential catastrophe given current safety efforts.
Scott argues that even if AGI requires a new paradigm beyond LLMs, we shouldn't expect significant delays, since Lindy's Law suggests major paradigm shifts could occur within 3-5 years, and new paradigms typically emerge precisely when scaling hits limits.
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.
Scott announces his collaboration with AI Futures Project's blog and their upcoming AMA, highlighting recent posts including one about AI time horizons that was validated by new OpenAI data.
Scott introduces a new AI forecasting project predicting rapid AI development and potential superintelligence by 2028, led by Daniel Kokotajlo, whose previous 2021 predictions proved remarkably accurate.
Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique.
Scott analyzes a new survey of AI researchers, showing diverse opinions on AI timelines and risks, with many acknowledging potential dangers but few prioritizing safety research.