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2019 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels.
12 min read 1,769 words
The independent Scott Alexander archive
Scott Alexander, collected.
Essays, arguments, and unexpected connections. An independent archive of Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex Ten, and LessWrong.
The collection
2,008 essaysSSC
Never Tell Me The Odds (Ratio)
Scott Alexander warns about the potential misinterpretation of odds ratios in studies, explaining how to convert them to effect sizes for more accurate understanding.
3 min read 365 words
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SSCJC: Real World Depression Measurement
Scott Alexander analyzes the PANDA Study, a large real-world antidepressant trial, discussing its methodology, results, and implications for understanding antidepressant efficacy.
10 min read 1,436 words
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Book Review: The Precipice
Scott Alexander reviews Toby Ord's 'The Precipice', a book about existential risks to humanity, noting Ord's careful analysis and surprisingly low risk estimates while emphasizing the importance of addressing these risks.
36 min read 5,435 words
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SSC Journal Club: MacIntyre On Cloth Masks
Scott Alexander analyzes a study suggesting cloth masks may be harmful, but remains cautiously in favor of their use despite the uncertainty.
11 min read 1,652 words
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Legal Systems Very Different From Ours, Because I Just Made Them Up
Fiction by Scott Alexander
18 min read 2,787 words
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Coronalinks 3/27/20: We’re Number One
Scott Alexander discusses various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including strategies, mysteries, controversies, and global impacts.
43 min read 6,534 words
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Face Masks: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Scott Alexander reviews evidence on face mask effectiveness against coronavirus, concluding they likely offer some protection despite CDC recommendations against general public use.
32 min read 4,933 words
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Coronalinks 3/19/20
Scott Alexander provides updates and speculations on various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including case estimates, strategies, medical issues, and societal responses.
24 min read 3,668 words
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Book Review: Hoover
The review examines Herbert Hoover's life, from his business success and humanitarian work to his presidency and post-presidential career, presenting him as a complex and influential figure in American history.
77 min read 11,786 words
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For, Then Against, High-Saturated-Fat Diets
The post explores a controversial theory linking saturated fats to weight control, critically examines the evidence, and discusses the paradox of historical vs. modern diets and obesity rates.
27 min read 4,099 words
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Socratic Grilling
Scott Alexander advocates for 'Socratic grilling' as a valuable learning tool, urging people not to mistake genuine confusion and questioning for arrogance or challenges to authority.
10 min read 1,434 words
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Book Review: The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work
Scott Alexander reviews John Gottman's marriage counseling methods, finding them intuitively appealing but scientifically questionable.
52 min read 8,028 words
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Book Review: Just Giving
Scott Alexander reviews 'Just Giving' by Rob Reich, criticizing its arguments against philanthropy by showing how they could also be used to condemn book-writing.
22 min read 3,374 words
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Links 2/20
Scott Alexander presents a curated list of interesting links and news items on topics ranging from politics and science to technology and culture.
20 min read 3,021 words
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Sleep Support: An Individual Randomized Controlled Trial
Scott Alexander conducts a personal randomized controlled trial of a sleep supplement, finding no significant effect over placebo, but gains insights into his sleep patterns.
9 min read 1,268 words
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Addendum to “Targeting Meritocracy”
Scott Alexander revisits his 'Targeting Meritocracy' post, realizing the disagreements stemmed from different fundamental perspectives: mistake theory vs. conflict theory.
3 min read 322 words
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Confirmation Bias As Misfire Of Normal Bayesian Reasoning
Scott Alexander proposes that confirmation bias might be a misapplication of normal Bayesian reasoning rather than a separate cognitive phenomenon.
4 min read 531 words
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Welcome (?), Infowars Readers
Scott Alexander addresses Infowars readers about a misattributed survey analysis, providing caveats and emphasizing proper attribution and vaccine safety.
3 min read 422 words
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Autogenderphilia Is Common And Not Especially Related To Transgender
Scott Alexander presents survey data showing autogenderphilia is common in both cisgender and transgender populations, challenging existing theories about its relationship to gender identity.
13 min read 1,965 words
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Suicide Hotspots Of The World
Scott investigates unusually high suicide rates in Guyana, Greenland, and Siberian regions, exploring potential ethnic, cultural, and social factors contributing to these trends.
20 min read 3,045 words
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Map Of Effective Altruism
Scott Alexander creates an interactive geographic-style map visualizing the landscape of effective altruism, including cause areas, organizations, and key individuals.
1 min read 82 words
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Book Review: Human Compatible
Stuart Russell's 'Human Compatible' presents AI safety concerns and potential solutions in an accessible way, though the reviewer has reservations about its treatment of current AI issues.
33 min read 5,043 words
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Assortative Mating And Autism
Scott Alexander analyzes survey data to investigate whether assortative mating among highly analytical people increases autism risk in their children, finding no significant evidence for this hypothesis.
8 min read 1,147 words
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Book Review Review: Little Soldiers
Scott Alexander reviews a book about Chinese education, comparing it to criticisms of US schools and examining evidence for discipline-focused vs. creativity-focused approaches to education.
24 min read 3,627 words
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