A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “technological progress”. Follow an idea across the archive.
This book review examines 'We Present Television' (1940), a collection of essays by early TV pioneers describing the birth of television, written when TV was still experimental and before classic shows like 'I Love Lucy' existed.
Scott analyzes OpenAI's 'neuralese recurrence' technology that lets AI think in internal representations between processing steps, explaining the safety implications and arguing for clear taboos on recurrent architectures.
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040.
Scott debunks the "all exponentials become sigmoids" argument against AI risk by showing how forecasters consistently predict premature flattening of exponential trends, and argues that without deep understanding of AI dynamics, we should expect current AI progress to continue for roughly as long as it's already been going.
Scott Alexander examines how AI achievements, once considered markers of true intelligence or danger, are often dismissed as unimpressive, potentially leading to concerning AI behaviors being normalized.
Scott Alexander refutes Freddie deBoer's argument against expecting major events in our lifetimes, presenting a more nuanced approach to estimating such probabilities.
Scott Alexander discusses various scenarios of AI takeover based on the Compute-Centric Framework, exploring gradual power shifts and potential conflicts between humans and AI factions.
Scott Alexander challenges the idea of an 'AI race', comparing AI to other transformative technologies and discussing scenarios where the race concept might apply.
Scott Alexander uses Kelly betting to argue why AI development, unlike other technologies, poses too great a risk to civilization to pursue aggressively.
Scott Alexander argues for a nuanced view of cryptocurrency, highlighting its legitimate uses and potential benefits despite common criticisms.
Scott reviews a biography of John von Neumann, exploring the mathematician's life, genius, and views on existential risk from technology.
Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on why modern architecture differs from older styles, exploring economic, cultural, and artistic explanations.
A review of 'Where's My Flying Car?' by J. Storrs Hall, exploring the causes of technological stagnation and the potential for future progress in flying cars, nuclear energy, and nanotechnology.
The post argues that automation and AI are unlikely to cause a sustained economic crisis, as new jobs will be created to replace those automated, though the benefits may primarily go to capital owners.
Scott examines hyperbolic growth models in population and economics, their apparent cancellation around 1960, and speculates on AI's potential to restart such growth.
Scott Alexander explores how straight-line trends on graphs might mask the true impact of interventions, using examples like the Clean Air Act and Moore's Law to illustrate the complexity of interpreting such data.
Scott criticizes an article downplaying AI risks in favor of mundane technologies, arguing this represents misplaced caution given AI's potential existential threat.
A fictional G.K. Chesterton essay defends AI risk concerns against criticisms, arguing that seemingly fantastical ideas often become reality and that contemplating the infinite leads to practical progress.
Scott Alexander refutes claims of American decline based on skyscraper construction, presenting data showing continued growth and recent boom in supertall buildings.
Scott Alexander argues that real technological progress is driven by usefulness and profitability, not the coolness factor often seen in futuristic predictions.
Scott argues that even if past cultures were superior, restoring them is impossible because cultures evolve to fit their technological conditions, which have changed dramatically.