A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “compute requirements”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott presents Plan A, a detailed roadmap by Daniel Kokotajlo's AI Futures Project proposing a US-China regulatory agreement to safely advance AI to genius-level systems in the 2030s, solve alignment during a controlled pause, then achieve aligned superintelligence by 2040.
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.
Scott argues AI safety regulation adds only 1-2% to training costs while America has a 10x compute advantage over China, making safety concerns irrelevant to the race; meanwhile, chip exports to China pose a far greater threat that the same critics ignore.
Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts.