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Tom Davidson

Essays tagged “Tom Davidson”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on Tom Davidson

2 essays

Feb 12, 2026ACX

What Happened With Bio Anchors?

Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.

27 min read 4,045 words

AI development AI timelines Ajeya Cotra

Jun 20, 2023ACX

Davidson On Takeoff Speeds

Scott Alexander reviews Tom Davidson's model predicting AI will progress from automating 20% of jobs to superintelligence in about 4 years, discussing its implications and comparisons to other AI forecasts.

41 min read 6,222 words

AI development AI research AI safety