A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “much more than you wanted to know”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards.
Scott examines why young people feel economically hopeless despite economists saying things are fine, testing various explanations like housing costs and wages, and concluding the truth involves both real factors (harder competition, expensive cities, recent mortgage spikes) and media-driven negativity.
A detailed investigation of the Sun Miracle of Fatima in 1917, where 70,000 people witnessed the sun appear to spin, change colors, and fall to earth, analyzing witness testimonies, skeptical explanations, and similar phenomena at other Marian apparition sites.
Scott explores the 'missing heritability' problem in genetics, where twin studies show traits like IQ and educational attainment are highly heritable but newer genomic methods find much lower heritability, analyzing various potential explanations for this discrepancy.
Scott provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's attempt to convert from nonprofit to for-profit status, including the legal challenges, competing offers, and implications for AI development.
Scott examines the likelihood and potential severity of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic, analyzing prediction markets and historical data to estimate a 5% chance of pandemic in the next year with most likely moderate severity.
Scott analyzes research on whether longer prison sentences reduce crime, examining studies on deterrence, incapacitation, and aftereffects, to conclude that while prison does decrease crime through incapacitation, it's less cost-effective than other methods like policing.
Scott Alexander reviews the evidence for declining sperm counts, discussing major studies, criticisms, and potential causes, while remaining uncertain about the true extent and reasons for any decline.
Scott Alexander examines obscure pregnancy interventions that may improve child outcomes, rating them by evidence quality and potential impact.
Scott Alexander analyzes ivermectin studies for COVID-19, finding most positive results likely due to methodological flaws, fraud, or confounding by parasitic infections.
Scott Alexander examines the current research on Long COVID, analyzing its prevalence, symptoms, and potential impacts to assess personal risk and societal implications.
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective.
Scott Alexander directs readers to his essay on Works in Progress examining why suicide rates didn't increase during the COVID-19 pandemic as expected.
Scott Alexander reviews evidence on face mask effectiveness against coronavirus, concluding they likely offer some protection despite CDC recommendations against general public use.
Scott Alexander examines the paradoxical relationship between autism and intelligence, discussing genetic and environmental factors, and proposing explanatory models for the observed lower IQ in autistic individuals despite genetic links to higher intelligence.
The post critically examines the impact of India's 1991 economic reforms, suggesting that the country's economic growth began earlier and that the causes are more complex than commonly believed.
Scott Alexander examines the history of increasing competitiveness in college admissions, analyzing causes and questioning whether the focus on elite college admission is justified.
Scott analyzes wage stagnation since 1973, examining various explanations and concluding that while wages have risen 40-50%, there is still significant decoupling from productivity due to multiple factors.
Scott Alexander critically examines studies on preschool effects, finding mixed and inconsistent evidence for long-term benefits.
Scott Alexander examines conflicting narratives about cancer treatment progress, analyzing data to show that while some improvements are due to social factors, there's evidence of genuine advancements in cancer treatment and outcomes.
Scott Alexander examines melatonin's effects, proper dosage, and uses for sleep disorders and circadian rhythm issues, emphasizing its dual role as a hypnotic and chronobiotic.
Scott Alexander examines evidence for technological unemployment, finding little current impact but signs of 'technological underemployment' pushing workers to lower-skill jobs.
Scott Alexander examines the risks of Adderall use, analyzing medical, addiction, tolerance, and neurotoxicity concerns, concluding that the benefits outweigh the risks for well-informed patients.
Scott Alexander critically examines pharmacogenomic testing for antidepressants, particularly the GeneSight test, expressing skepticism about its current effectiveness and validity.
Scott Alexander reviews research on teacher effectiveness, examining Value-Added Modeling (VAM) and its criticisms, while expressing uncertainty about claimed long-term impacts on adult earnings.