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Samotsvety Forecasting

Essays tagged “Samotsvety Forecasting”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on Samotsvety Forecasting

2 essays

Aug 3, 2026ACX

Does Forecasting Have Room At The Top?

Scott analyzes whether AI forecasters will plateau near human levels or keep improving, arguing that even non-miraculous progress could yield 4-12 percentage point improvements in prediction market accuracy.

25 min read 3,865 words

AI capabilities AI forecasting AI progress

Oct 18, 2022ACX

Mantic Monday 10/17/22

Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.

25 min read 3,862 words

2022 US midterms CFTC forecasting