ACX
Mantic Monday: Judgment Day
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.
25 min read 3,744 words
A thread through the archive
CFTC
Essays tagged “CFTC”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on CFTC
8 essaysACX
Mantic Monday 9/16/24
Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting.
17 min read 2,631 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 5/13/24
Scott Alexander reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including regulatory changes, platform pivots, and debates about the field's future.
33 min read 5,080 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including regulatory issues, new platforms, and current market probabilities on various topics.
22 min read 3,353 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 1/30/2023
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting, including Metaculus' milestone, PredictIt's legal issues, and various prediction market topics.
31 min read 4,760 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 10/17/22
Scott Alexander discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including midterm forecasts, legal challenges, nuclear risk assessments, and new market applications.
25 min read 3,862 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 8/15/22
Scott Alexander examines the shutdown of PredictIt and its implications for the prediction market industry, while also highlighting new developments and forecasts in the field.
24 min read 3,692 words
ACX
The Passage Of Polymarket
Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.
19 min read 2,918 words