A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “election”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.
Scott surveys research on priming, including studies showing it can sway political judgments and votes, and suggests deciding important matters in a neutral environment.