A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “personal life”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott shares humorous anecdotes about the daily chaos of raising toddler twins, from emergency police visits triggered by screaming over the wrong version of a song, to elaborate bedtime battles and the children's obsession with identifying vehicles and animals.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.
Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability.
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics.
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year.
Scott Alexander lists 60 predictions for 2014 across global events, online communities, and personal life, assigning probabilities to each.