SSC
Five More Years
Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes.
21 min read 3,126 words
A thread through the archive
US politics
Essays tagged “US politics”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on US politics
32 essaysSSC
Predictions For 2018
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each.
10 min read 1,435 words
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2017 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.
14 min read 2,077 words
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Predictions For 2017
Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability.
9 min read 1,346 words
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Predictions For 2016
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics.
10 min read 1,447 words
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Theses On Trump
Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment.
10 min read 1,436 words
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(Late) Predictions for 2015
Scott Alexander makes belated predictions for 2015, covering world events and personal life with varying confidence levels.
4 min read 615 words