ACX
Political Backflow From Europe
Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics.
14 min read 2,052 words
A thread through the archive
US politics
Essays tagged “US politics”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on US politics
32 essaysACX
ACX/Metaculus Prediction Contest 2026
The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.
2 min read 219 words
ACX
ACX Local Voting Guides
Scott Alexander shares and comments on local voting guides created by ACX meetup groups for various US cities, highlighting interesting aspects of each guide.
11 min read 1,562 words
ACX
Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could significantly improve the party's chances in the 2024 election.
31 min read 4,750 words
ACX
Hardball Questions For The Next Debate
Scott Alexander presents a satirical, fictional Republican primary debate with absurd rules to highlight candidate personalities and critique political debate formats.
15 min read 2,209 words
ACX
My Presidential Platform
Scott Alexander presents a satirical presidential platform with outlandish and humorous policy proposals, critiquing various aspects of American politics and society.
19 min read 2,817 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Putin
Commenters provide additional context and debate points from Scott Alexander's review of a Putin biography, covering Putin's rise, the author's objectivity, and comparisons to US politics.
27 min read 4,142 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 7/11/22
The post examines prediction markets for Trump's 2024 chances, Musk's Twitter deal, and the impact of the Dobbs decision, while also discussing new forecasting initiatives and other current events.
12 min read 1,791 words
ACX
Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
A review of Richard Hanania's book arguing that public choice theory, not grand strategy, explains US foreign policy decisions and their often devastating consequences.
52 min read 8,023 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 6/13/22
Scott Alexander reviews recent predictions and forecasts on topics including monkeypox, the Ukraine war, AI development, and US politics.
13 min read 1,909 words
ACX
Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
Scott Alexander critiques the claim that 'America has two X-wing parties' as meaningless or misleading, urging for more precise political comparisons.
5 min read 629 words
ACX
Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
Scott Alexander examines which US political party has become more extreme faster, concluding Democrats have moved further left on policy since 1994, while results vary for other aspects of extremism.
21 min read 3,171 words
ACX
California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
Scott Alexander humorously reviews the 26 candidates for California governor in 2022, highlighting their diverse backgrounds and unconventional policy ideas.
74 min read 11,334 words
ACX
Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President
Scott explores cultural translation by reimagining Xi Jinping's life as that of a fictional American president, Jason Shea, and reflects on the challenges of this creative exercise.
10 min read 1,428 words
ACX
Predictions For 2022
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers.
15 min read 2,236 words
ACX
Grading My 2021 Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.
11 min read 1,559 words
ACX
Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Scott examines data on COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness, finding they likely reduced transmission but at significant costs, with targeted measures being most effective.
73 min read 11,254 words
ACX
Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
A review of Robert Caro's 'The Years of Lyndon Johnson' series, exploring LBJ's life, political tactics, and legacy, while praising the author's dedication and writing style.
16 min read 2,430 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction.
8 min read 1,148 words
ACX
Book Review: Why We're Polarized
Scott Alexander reviews Ezra Klein's 'Why We're Polarized', finding it asks important questions about political polarization but provides few clear answers.
33 min read 5,061 words
SSC
Predictions For 2020
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability.
8 min read 1,086 words
SSC
2019 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander reviews and analyzes his 2019 predictions, finding he was generally well-calibrated but slightly underconfident across all confidence levels.
12 min read 1,769 words
SSC
Hardball Questions For The Next Debate (2020)
Scott Alexander presents satirical and absurd 'hardball questions' for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, showcasing clever wordplay and humorous connections.
7 min read 1,013 words
SSC
Predictions For 2019
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.
8 min read 1,207 words
SSC
2018 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.
12 min read 1,852 words