A thread through the archive

confidence levels

Essays tagged “confidence levels”. Follow an idea across the archive.

Essays on confidence levels

2 essays

Dec 16, 2010LW

Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

Scott distinguishes between an argument's internal confidence level and our external confidence in that argument, showing that extremely high probability claims should be moderated by the baseline probability that the argument itself is flawed.

13 min read 1,981 words

May 2, 2009LW

What I Tell You Three Times Is True

Scott argues that affirmations (repeatedly stating goals aloud) might actually work based on evidence that subconscious beliefs affect success and that verbal repetition influences subconscious beliefs, though he acknowledges this needs proper scientific study.

9 min read 1,379 words

akrasia belief formation confidence levels