ACX
Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his COVID-19 origins debate post, addressing criticisms and maintaining his support for the zoonosis theory.
119 min read 18,355 words
A thread through the archive
probabilistic reasoning
Essays tagged “probabilistic reasoning”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on probabilistic reasoning
6 essaysACX
Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
Scott Alexander reviews a $100,000 debate on COVID-19 origins, where the zoonotic hypothesis unexpectedly won against the lab leak theory.
118 min read 18,207 words
ACX
Against Learning From Dramatic Events
Scott Alexander argues against significantly updating beliefs based on single dramatic events, advocating for consistent policies based on pre-existing probability distributions.
26 min read 3,919 words
SSC
A Failure, But Not Of Prediction
Scott Alexander argues that the media's failure in coronavirus coverage was not about prediction, but about poor probabilistic reasoning and decision-making under uncertainty.
28 min read 4,215 words
SSC
Kavanaugh: A Probability Poll
Scott Alexander analyzes a survey on readers' estimated probabilities of Kavanaugh's guilt, finding significant partisan differences and no clear consensus even with probabilistic thinking.
8 min read 1,179 words
LW
Nonmindkilling open questions
Scott asks readers for examples of popular, important, factual questions with high uncertainty and no clear 'responsible' position, to use when teaching probabilistic thinking, noting that his previous examples like global warming have become too polarized.
3 min read 363 words