ACX
"Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine
Scott Alexander summarizes the AI-focused issue of Asterisk Magazine, highlighting key articles on AI forecasting, testing, and impacts.
4 min read 588 words
The reader’s shortlist
Worth a second thought.
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2,008 essaysACX
Ukraine Thoughts And Links
Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources.
30 min read 4,611 words
ACX
Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
Scott Alexander reviews 'A Brief History of Neoliberalism', finding it engaging but flawed in its economic analysis and predictions.
51 min read 7,791 words
ACX
Take The 2024 ACX Survey
Scott Alexander announces the 2024 ACX Survey, inviting readers to participate and potentially win a free subscription.
2 min read 226 words
LW
Trivers on Self-Deception
Scott explains Robert Trivers' evolutionary theory that consciousness evolved as a 'public relations agency' to help people deceive others by first deceiving themselves about their true motives.
8 min read 1,145 words
ACX
CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
Scott Alexander explains and analyzes the debate between MIRI and CHAI on AI alignment strategies, focusing on the challenges and potential flaws in CHAI's 'assistance games' approach.
36 min read 5,459 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
Scott Alexander summarizes and responds to reader comments on his article about billionaire wealth, addressing various economic and ethical perspectives.
41 min read 6,220 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
Scott Alexander shares reader comments on his 'San Fransicko' book review, covering homelessness, crime statistics, and urban policy debates.
63 min read 9,636 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
Scott Alexander explores various commenters' insights on the neuroscience of reward, happiness, and relationships, expanding on his original post about unpredictable rewards.
31 min read 4,682 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 12/4/23
The post discusses recent developments in prediction markets, including challenges in market design, updates to forecasting platforms, and current market predictions on various topics.
31 min read 4,770 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 3/11/24
The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets.
27 min read 4,080 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 5/9/22
Scott Alexander reviews recent prediction market changes and defends the usefulness of prediction markets, focusing on Ukraine, Roe v. Wade, and other topics.
21 min read 3,105 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets on Twitter, FTX, effective altruism, and US midterms, discussing their accuracy and exploring the concept of 'scandal markets'.
30 min read 4,529 words
LW
Time and Effort Discounting
Scott explains time and effort discounting through examples like candy placement affecting consumption, argues that hyperbolic discounting creates preference reversals, and suggests these are better understood as reward functions rather than true preferences.
9 min read 1,315 words
ACX
ACX Classifieds 4/25
Scott announces an irregular classifieds thread where readers can post advertisements under specific categories, with guidelines for respectful engagement.
1 min read 117 words
ACX
Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
Scott Alexander responds to comments on his post about criticism of EA, addressing various points about scientific paradigms, types of criticism, and the ethics of evangelism.
31 min read 4,662 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 2/19/24
Scott Alexander explores recent advancements in AI-powered prediction markets, including bot-based systems, AI forecasters, and their potential impact on future predictions and decision-making.
25 min read 3,851 words
ACX
Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
Scott Alexander examines two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems in medical and social science research, highlighting the complexities in interpreting results.
13 min read 1,958 words
LW
The "Spot the Fakes" Test
Scott proposes testing untestable humanities claims by mixing one sincere argument with several deliberately fabricated ones, inspired by the Ern Malley poetry hoax, and seeing whether experts can tell them apart.
7 min read 1,010 words
LW
Wanting vs. Liking Revisited
Scott explains why 'wanting' and 'liking' diverge by examining reinforcement learning mechanisms like context-dependence, intermittent reinforcement, and hyperbolic discounting, concluding that this undermines the concept of stable preferences.
8 min read 1,231 words
ACX
ACX Grants: Project Updates
Scott Alexander provides updates on the ACX Grants project, summarizing the progress of grantees and their ongoing needs.
28 min read 4,283 words
ACX
ACX Survey Results 2022
Scott Alexander announces the results of the 2022 ACX survey, providing links to questions, results, and downloadable datasets, with notes on privacy measures and future analyses.
4 min read 469 words
ACX
Links For April
Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each.
15 min read 2,290 words
ACX
Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car?
A review of 'Where's My Flying Car?' by J. Storrs Hall, exploring the causes of technological stagnation and the potential for future progress in flying cars, nuclear energy, and nanotechnology.
21 min read 3,124 words
LW
Introduction to Prisoners' Dilemma
Scott introduces the Prisoners' Dilemma, showing how rational reasoning leads two criminals to defect against each other even when mutual cooperation would benefit both, then explores why iterating the dilemma doesn't fully solve the problem.
10 min read 1,482 words