The independent Scott Alexander archive
Essays, arguments, and unexpected connections. An independent archive of Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex Ten, and LessWrong.
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.
Scott analyzes the legal controversy around AI companies contracting with the Department of War, showing that 'all lawful use' permits mass surveillance and autonomous weapons through existing legal loopholes, despite OpenAI's claims of safeguards.
Scott argues that dismissing AI as 'just a next-token predictor' is like dismissing humans as 'just reproduction machines' - both confuse the optimization process that shaped an entity with how that entity actually thinks.
Scott analyzes the Pentagon's threatening tactics against Anthropic for refusing to remove Usage Policy restrictions from their contract, arguing this represents unprecedented authoritarian overreach and supporting Anthropic's stance against mass surveillance.
Scott examines the tension between correcting false claims (like that crime is actually up but hidden) and being accused of deflecting from related legitimate concerns (like disorder), using his recent crime posts as an example.
Scott announces the 2026 book review contest with a May 20th deadline, requiring anonymized submissions via Google Form, offering prizes of at least $2,500/$1,000/$500 for the top three winners.
Scott examines whether reported increases in "crime" actually reflect concerns about "disorder" (litter, graffiti, shoplifting, homelessness, tent encampments), finding that most disorder metrics are either stable or down from historical highs, contradicting narratives of societal collapse.
Scott demonstrates that US crime rates are at historic lows using multiple data sources, then debunks the theories that this is due to reporting bias or improved medical care, before briefly discussing possible explanations for the decline.
Scott invites readers to ask questions that will be answered by Claude 4.6 Opus to demonstrate current AI capabilities and test whether AI skeptics underestimate what paid-tier AI can do.
Scott explains why Ajeya Cotra's influential 'Biological Anchors' report correctly predicted the AI scaling boom but got AGI timelines wrong by twenty years, due to severely underestimating the rate of algorithmic progress.
Scott examines how American political discourse absorbs European narratives that don't fit the US context, particularly around immigration and crime statistics.
A monthly collection of diverse links covering AI developments and regulation, COVID origins debates, healthcare policy, cultural phenomena, scientific research, and internet curiosities, maintaining Scott's characteristic blend of serious analysis and entertaining observations.
Scott examines Moltbook (an AI social network) to determine if AI behavior is 'real' by analyzing external causes and effects, finding that while AIs create impressive projects, their short time horizons prevent sustained organization, though this may change as capabilities improve.
Scott investigates Moltbook, a social network for AI agents, showcasing their surprisingly creative and philosophical posts while questioning whether their interactions represent genuine experience or sophisticated simulation.
Scott opens a classifieds thread for readers to advertise employment, dating, blogs, products, meetups and other services in organized categories with guidelines for respectful posting.
Scott analyzes why people support government-funded foreign aid instead of donating voluntarily, examining and critiquing several theories including virtue signaling, coordination problems, and time-inconsistent preferences.
Scott responds to comments on his Scott Adams obituary, defending his mixed tone while making some updates based on feedback about Adams' podcast reach and influence.
Scott Alexander eulogizes Scott Adams (Dilbert creator), analyzing his life as a tension between being a brilliant humorist and desperately wanting to be seen as more, leading through failed business ventures and self-help philosophies to eventual cancellation and death.
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field.
Scott shares humorous anecdotes about the daily chaos of raising toddler twins, from emergency police visits triggered by screaming over the wrong version of a song, to elaborate bedtime battles and the children's obsession with identifying vehicles and animals.
Scott Alexander reviews comments on his defense of Baby Boomers, clarifying three separate claims about generational fairness and addressing debates about housing policy, Social Security, cultural changes, and whether the structural problems attributed to Boomers are actually universal features of aging populations.
Scott argues that worrying about escaping a "permanent underclass" after AI is misguided, and that instead people should focus on the real opportunity: making meaningful contributions during this pivotal moment in history that will be remembered by future civilizations forever.
Scott reviews comments on his vibecession post, exploring when it started, whether it's really about economics or culture, and notably finding that China experiences similar pessimism despite 5-10x income growth, suggesting vibes can be completely divorced from economic reality.
The 2026 ACX/Metaculus prediction contest is now open with a $10,000 prize pool, featuring reader-submitted questions, and Scott announces the winners of the best question submission contest.
Start with a reader favorite, or follow an idea somewhere unexpected.