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Beware Systemic Change
Scott Alexander argues that effective altruism should be wary of pursuing systemic change, as it risks wasting resources and alienating supporters.
26 min read 4,024 words
The independent Scott Alexander archive
Scott Alexander, collected.
Essays, arguments, and unexpected connections. An independent archive of Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex Ten, and LessWrong.
The collection
2,008 essaysSSC
Cardiologists and Chinese Robbers
The post uses a fabricated narrative about cardiologists to illustrate the Chinese Robber Fallacy and its role in media bias, emphasizing the importance of context in interpreting negative stories about any group.
14 min read 2,078 words
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Links 9/15: Linker Tailor Soldier Spy
Scott shares a diverse collection of interesting links spanning science, history, and current events, with commentary on research methodologies and unexpected findings.
17 min read 2,619 words
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Book Review: Manufacturing Consent
Scott reviews 'Manufacturing Consent' by Chomsky and Herman, analyzing its arguments about media bias and US foreign policy atrocities.
55 min read 8,497 words
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If You Can’t Make Predictions, You’re Still In A Crisis
Scott Alexander argues that psychology is indeed in crisis, contrary to a New York Times article's claim, due to issues like publication bias and low replication rates.
13 min read 1,866 words
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Theses On Trump
Scott Alexander analyzes the unexpected success of political outsiders like Trump and Corbyn, attributing it to growing ideological polarization and anti-establishment sentiment.
10 min read 1,436 words
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Magic Markers
Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming to have found biomarkers for suicide risk, arguing that the results are overstated and such a test would have limited clinical utility even if accurate.
13 min read 1,958 words
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Links 8/15: Linkering Doubts
A collection of interesting links covering science, economics, and culture, with key stories about psychology study replication failures and various scientific findings.
17 min read 2,574 words
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Mysticism and Pattern-Matching
Scott Alexander hypothesizes that mystical experiences, hallucinations, and paranoia might be linked to an overactive pattern-matching faculty in the brain.
13 min read 2,008 words
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Probabilities Without Models
Scott Alexander argues for the use of probabilities in decision-making even without well-defined models, using examples to show why this approach is necessary and beneficial in real-world situations.
11 min read 1,566 words
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On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.
30 min read 4,625 words
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The Goddess of Everything Else
A mythological tale contrasts the Goddess of Cancer's primal drives with the Goddess of Everything Else's push for cooperation and progress, showing how the latter gradually wins over creation.
16 min read 2,353 words
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Links 8/15: Linkety-Split
Scott shares and comments on various news articles and studies, covering topics from police tactics and Trump's campaign to behavioral genetics and dietary research.
13 min read 1,976 words
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My Id On Defensiveness
Scott Alexander explains his defensiveness as a response to unfair critiques that risk pushing groups into irredeemable disrepute, and grapples with how to address this issue.
15 min read 2,224 words
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Figure/Ground Illusions
Scott Alexander discusses how figure/ground illusions in ideological debates can make balanced representation appear biased, using examples from effective altruism and AI risk.
8 min read 1,155 words
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Stop Adding Zeroes
Scott Alexander critiques Dylan Matthews' argument against prioritizing existential risk reduction, arguing that Matthews misuses probabilities and that his logic could also undermine other effective altruist causes.
17 min read 2,492 words
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Book Review: Chronicles Of Wasted Time
Scott Alexander reviews Malcolm Muggeridge's autobiography, examining his experiences exposing Stalin's regime and the West's willful ignorance of Soviet crimes.
48 min read 7,335 words
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Contrarians, Crackpots, and Consensus
Scott explores the nature of scientific contrarianism, discussing how ideas spread through the scientific community and the challenges faced by both crackpots and legitimate contrarians.
23 min read 3,495 words
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Links 8/15: A Link In The Armor
A collection of interesting links spanning scientific research, politics, economics, and culture, with brief commentary from Scott Alexander on each item.
15 min read 2,290 words
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Contra Hallquist On Scientific Rationality
Scott Alexander defends Less Wrong and Eliezer Yudkowsky against accusations of being anti-scientific, arguing that developing rational thinking skills beyond traditional scientific methods is valuable and necessary.
70 min read 10,781 words
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Stalin and Summary Statistics
Scott Alexander examines how different statistical presentations of the same data in social science studies can lead to vastly different interpretations, potentially misleading readers.
18 min read 2,663 words
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Non-Dual Awareness
Scott Alexander examines 'dualization' in various fields, comparing its effects to non-dualized professions and exploring its causes and broader implications in society.
16 min read 2,441 words
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Links 7/15: From Link, Where Rocky Peaks Climb Bleak And Bare
A collection of interesting links covering various topics from scientific studies and economic policies to cultural oddities, with particular focus on deworming program controversies and workplace discrimination research.
13 min read 1,865 words
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The General Factor Of Correctness
Scott Alexander explores the possibility of a 'General Factor of Correctness' and its implications for rationality and decision-making across various fields.
18 min read 2,739 words
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Freedom On The Centralized Web
Scott Alexander examines the challenges to free speech posed by centralized internet platforms and the difficulties in creating viable alternatives.
23 min read 3,414 words
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