ACX
Failure To Replicate Anti-Vaccine Poll
Scott Alexander attempts to replicate a poll claiming high rates of COVID vaccine deaths, finds much lower rates, and concludes such polls are unreliable due to bias.
14 min read 2,073 words
A thread through the archive
statistics
Essays tagged “statistics”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on statistics
55 essaysACX
Contra Stone On EA
Scott Alexander critiques Lyman Stone's arguments against Effective Altruism, defending the movement's impact, methodology, and philosophical foundations.
35 min read 5,420 words
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A Theoretical "Case Against Education"
Scott Alexander examines the effectiveness of education by analyzing knowledge retention, questioning the value of schooling beyond basic skills.
18 min read 2,678 words
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ACX Survey Results 2024
Scott Alexander shares the results of the 2024 Astral Codex Ten survey, providing access to data and promising future analyses.
3 min read 393 words
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Who Predicted 2023?
Scott Alexander analyzes the results of his 2023 forecasting contest, comparing various prediction methods and individual forecasters.
19 min read 2,907 words
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Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenic Disorders
Scott Alexander uses simulations to explain why seemingly counterintuitive arguments against the genetic basis of schizophrenia are misleading.
11 min read 1,561 words
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How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
Scott Alexander examines recent studies on the Fraternal Birth Order Effect, finding evidence for a broader sibling birth order effect on homosexuality, though its exact nature and mechanism remain debated.
22 min read 3,400 words
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Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences
Scott Alexander discusses reader comments on his post about dating preferences, covering various perspectives and addressing critiques of 'dating docs'.
40 min read 6,114 words
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In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences
Scott Alexander argues that describable dating preferences are valuable, despite studies suggesting otherwise, by pointing out flaws in research and emphasizing real-world evidence.
32 min read 4,885 words
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Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context
Scott Alexander explores the difficulties in contextualizing statistics, providing numerous examples to show how the same data can be presented to seem significant or trivial.
9 min read 1,355 words
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Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
Scott Alexander investigates the 'wisdom of crowds' hypothesis using survey data, exploring its effectiveness and potential applications.
14 min read 2,145 words
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Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys
Scott Alexander argues that selection bias, while a concern, is not a valid reason to automatically reject amateur online surveys, as professional studies also face similar limitations.
7 min read 963 words
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Links For April
Scott Alexander shares 33 diverse links on topics ranging from history and science to technology and politics, offering brief summaries and commentary on each.
15 min read 2,290 words
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Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
Scott Alexander critiques a study claiming cash payments to poor mothers increased infant brain function, highlighting statistical and methodological issues that undermine its positive conclusions.
15 min read 2,177 words
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Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
Scott Alexander examines two cases of multiple hypothesis testing problems in medical and social science research, highlighting the complexities in interpreting results.
13 min read 1,958 words
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2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
13 min read 1,892 words
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Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
Scott Alexander examines the relationship between handedness, authoritarianism, and cognitive flexibility, finding unexpected results that contradict a recent study.
14 min read 2,100 words
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Book Review: Antifragile
Scott Alexander reviews Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile', which explores the concept of benefiting from disorder across various domains and critiques modern attempts to reduce volatility.
36 min read 5,496 words
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Highlights From The Comments On March Links
Scott Alexander reviews and responds to reader comments on various topics from his March Links post, providing additional context and clarifications.
18 min read 2,780 words
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Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.
12 min read 1,745 words
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Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.
15 min read 2,184 words
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COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Scott Alexander critically evaluates the evidence for Vitamin D's role in COVID-19 prevention and treatment, ultimately leaning towards skepticism while acknowledging the low risk of supplementation.
20 min read 2,989 words
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Metaculus Monday
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.
13 min read 1,914 words
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
Scott Alexander examines taxometrics in psychiatry, finding that most mental health conditions are dimensional rather than categorical, and discusses the implications for diagnosis and treatment.
31 min read 4,710 words
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Know Your Amphetamines
Scott Alexander examines the history, chemistry, and efficacy of various amphetamine-based ADHD medications, comparing their strengths and weaknesses.
22 min read 3,345 words