A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “predictions”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander argues against the fear of a chatbot propaganda apocalypse, presenting several reasons why its impact would be limited and offering predictions for 2030.
Scott Alexander shares his predictions for 2022 on various topics, comments on predictions from other sources, and announces a prediction contest for readers.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2021 predictions, analyzing his performance across various confidence levels and comparing his results to other forecasters and prediction markets.
Scott Alexander shares his annual predictions for 2021, covering various topics from politics to personal life, with assigned probabilities for each prediction.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2020 predictions, finding he was generally overconfident, and discusses the implications for his prediction-making process.
Scott Alexander analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic's progress, predicts future waves, and speculates on its long-term impact and transition to an endemic disease.
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability.
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.
Scott Alexander provides detailed predictions for the next five years on topics ranging from AI and politics to science and culture, with probability estimates for specific outcomes.
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each.
Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability.
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics.
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters.
Scott Alexander lists 60 predictions for 2014 across global events, online communities, and personal life, assigning probabilities to each.