SSC
Predictions For 2019
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.
8 min read 1,207 words
A thread through the archive
world events
Essays tagged “world events”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on world events
7 essaysSSC
2017 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.
14 min read 2,077 words
SSC
2016 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years.
11 min read 1,634 words
SSC
Predictions For 2016
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2016, assigning probabilities to each across various global and personal topics.
10 min read 1,447 words
SSC
2015 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year.
7 min read 991 words
SSC
(Late) Predictions for 2015
Scott Alexander makes belated predictions for 2015, covering world events and personal life with varying confidence levels.
4 min read 615 words
SSC
2014 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters.
7 min read 974 words