A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “gambling”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott Alexander shares excerpts from Josiah Royce's 1886 history of 1850s San Francisco, showing that many supposedly modern urban problems—housing prices, crime, family breakdown, NIMBYism, boom-bust cycles—existed in frontier California.
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field.
Scott Alexander discusses recent events in prediction markets, including a costly prank on Manifold, debt ceiling forecasts, a study on long-term predictions, and a high-profile hyperinflation bet.
Scott Alexander presents a comprehensive FAQ on prediction markets, arguing for their accuracy, canonicity, and potential to solve the 'crisis of trust' in society.
Scott Alexander reviews and explains his votes on California's 2022 ballot propositions and candidates, providing analysis and commentary on each item.
Scott Alexander humorously explores the potential for arbitrage in papal betting markets, noting legal and religious obstacles, while highlighting some curious odds and betting options.
Scott explains the basics of classical and operant conditioning, focusing on B.F. Skinner's work with pigeons and different reinforcement schedules, ultimately connecting variable ratio reinforcement to slot machines and human behavior.