ACX
Mantic Monday 7/26
Scott reviews recent developments in prediction markets, including COVID-19 forecasts, the launch of Kalshi, and Metaculus' new hiring initiative.
14 min read 2,168 words
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Metaculus
Essays tagged “Metaculus”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on Metaculus
34 essaysACX
Mantic Monday 6/21/21
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts.
10 min read 1,447 words
ACX
Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
Scott proposes politicians pledge to change prediction markets' forecasts instead of making direct outcome pledges, using Biden's emissions pledge as an example.
6 min read 877 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
Scott Alexander examines Matt Yglesias's public predictions and discusses the implications for evaluating pundits and the future of prediction-based journalism.
16 min read 2,379 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
Scott Alexander examines the Metaculus scoring rule controversy and the challenges of long-term prediction markets, discussing potential solutions and their limitations.
12 min read 1,745 words
ACX
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of COVID-19 predictions made by himself and two others in April 2020, discussing the results and their implications for forecasting.
15 min read 2,184 words
ACX
Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
Scott Alexander examines prediction markets, focusing on Metaculus forecasts for AI development and its potential impacts.
15 min read 2,201 words
ACX
Metaculus Monday
Scott Alexander introduces 'Metaculus Monday', a series focusing on prediction markets, and discusses several Metaculus predictions about COVID-19.
13 min read 1,914 words
SSC
Why Not More Excitement About Prediction Aggregation?
Scott Alexander examines the underutilization of prediction aggregation platforms like Metaculus, exploring potential reasons and expressing surprise at their lack of widespread adoption.
7 min read 931 words