ACX
Ballots Everywhere: Times & Places
Scott organizes local meetups across several US cities where rationalist community members will collectively research ballot measures and candidates to create voting guides.
4 min read 501 words
A thread through the archive
US elections
Essays tagged “US elections”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on US elections
10 essaysACX
Mantic Monday: Judgment Day
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.
25 min read 3,744 words
ACX
Secrets Of The Median Voter Theorem
Scott Alexander explores the Median Voter Theorem, its limitations in real politics, and why recent US elections have been surprisingly close despite these complications.
19 min read 2,891 words
ACX
My 2024 Presidential Debate
Scott Alexander presents a satirical 2024 presidential debate between Biden and Trump, featuring increasingly absurd positions on various issues.
27 min read 4,116 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 3/11/24
The post explores recent advances in AI forecasting, discusses the concept of 'rationality engines', reviews a study on AI risk predictions, and provides updates on various prediction markets.
27 min read 4,080 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 1/29/24
The post examines the performance of prediction markets in elections, current political forecasts, and various other prediction markets, while also discussing the challenges and potential of forecasting.
19 min read 2,887 words
ACX
Mantic Monday 8/28/23
Scott Alexander analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, including the LK-99 superconductor hype, a forecasting tournament, and new prediction market concepts.
18 min read 2,697 words
SSC
Predictions For 2020
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2020, covering topics from coronavirus to personal goals, each with an assigned probability.
8 min read 1,086 words
SSC
More Hardball Debate Questions
The post presents challenging hypothetical debate questions for presidential candidates, addressing controversial aspects of their platforms or backgrounds.
14 min read 2,137 words
SSC
SSC Endorses Clinton, Johnson, Or Stein
Scott Alexander endorses Clinton (or Johnson/Stein in safe states) over Trump, citing concerns about Trump's unpredictability and potential negative impacts on conservatism and social dynamics.
34 min read 5,167 words