The independent Scott Alexander archive
Essays, arguments, and unexpected connections. An independent archive of Slate Star Codex, Astral Codex Ten, and LessWrong.
Scott proposes a 'low-hanging fruit' model to explain trends in scientific discovery, using a foraging analogy to illustrate why early scientists make more discoveries and at a younger age.
Scott Alexander argues for a universal right to self-determination, critiquing the current paradigm of determining which groups qualify as 'peoples'.
Scott Alexander explores different types of prediction markets, their uses, limitations, and ethical considerations in decision-making and information gathering.
Scott Alexander discusses reactions to his 'Justice Creep' article, exploring different perspectives on framing social issues as matters of justice.
Scott Alexander examines why therapy works for some people but not others, suggesting that individual differences in mental processes might explain its varying effectiveness.
Scott Alexander argues against Erik Hoel's claim that the decline of 'aristocratic tutoring' explains the perceived lack of modern geniuses, offering alternative explanations and counterexamples.
Scott Alexander updates readers on Ukraine war predictions, Insight Prediction's challenges, ACX 2022 Prediction Contest results, and various prediction market developments.
Scott Alexander highlights and responds to expert comments on his previous posts about Zulresso and Zuranolone, covering various aspects of these drugs and related topics.
Scott Alexander examines the increasing use of 'justice' framing in social and environmental issues, exploring its implications and potential societal impact.
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.
Scott Alexander discusses Fabian vs Berserker strategies for an academic fighting wokeness, exploring various considerations and seeking reader input.
Scott Alexander proposes using high-dose oral progesterone as a potential low-cost alternative to Zulresso for treating postpartum depression, based on pharmacological research.
Scott Alexander analyzes the Ukraine conflict, discussing international norms, risks of escalation, and Western responses, while providing various related links and resources.
Scott Alexander examines Zulresso and Zuranolone, two neurosteroid drugs for postpartum depression, discussing their efficacy, challenges, and potential future applications.
Scott Alexander examines various interpretations of rationality, concluding it might be best understood as 'the study of study' - a meta-level examination of truth-seeking methods.
Scott proposes the concept of 'microaddictions', comparing eating habits and other enjoyable activities to drug addiction patterns, challenging traditional views on addiction.
Scott Alexander evaluates predictions about the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing the performance of prediction markets and individual pundits.
Scott Alexander reviews competing methodologies for predicting AI timelines, focusing on Ajeya Cotra's biological anchors approach and Eliezer Yudkowsky's critique.
Scott Alexander shares a diverse collection of links on topics ranging from scientific studies to cultural phenomena, with brief commentary on each.
Scott analyzes play money and reputation systems in prediction markets, discussing their designs, challenges, and potential improvements.
Fiction by Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander reviews the obscure psychoanalytic book 'Sadly, Porn', attempting to decipher its core ideas about human psychology and society.
Scott Alexander analyzes prediction markets for the Ukraine crisis, introduces Manifold Markets, and discusses recent Metaculus questions and forecasting initiatives.
Scott Alexander explores expert and reader comments on his post about motivated reasoning and reinforcement learning, discussing brain function, threat detection, and the implementation of complex behaviors.
Start with a reader favorite, or follow an idea somewhere unexpected.