A thread through the archive
Essays tagged “Polymarket”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Scott examines prediction markets on Anthropic's Pentagon troubles (minimal impact expected), the 2026 midterms (Democratic wins likely despite voting law concerns), groundhog weather predictions (mostly broken clocks), Iran conflict outcomes (under 50% regime change), and introduces MNX, a new AI-focused futures exchange.
Scott reviews the state of prediction markets after explosive growth, finding that most volume is degenerate sports gambling rather than useful forecasting, and proposes both technical solutions and two potential futures for the field.
The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open, featuring 36 questions and a particular focus on comparing forecasting bots with human predictors.
Scott Alexander praises Polymarket's election success but argues their Trump odds were mispriced, explaining why Trump's win doesn't significantly validate their numbers over other forecasters.
The post examines the spectacle of US elections, analyzes recent developments in prediction markets, and discusses various election-related forecasts and their implications.
Scott examines a new AI forecaster, discusses Polymarket's success, and reviews recent developments in prediction markets and forecasting.
Scott analyzes Ukraine prediction markets, nuclear war risk forecasts, and compares forecasters to experts, along with various updates on prediction platforms.
Scott offers corrections about Polymarket's status and updates on the 2022 prediction contest, including calls for collaboration and ideas.
Scott examines the recent crackdown on Polymarket, critiques US policy on prediction markets, and discusses the future and potential of both prediction markets and cryptocurrency.
Scott discusses various prediction markets and forecasting topics, including Metaculus predictions, Polymarket vs PredictIt, a study on forecasting accuracy, and the need for more precise inflation predictions from experts.