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Predictions For 2019
Scott Alexander shares his 118 predictions for 2019, covering politics, economics, technology, and personal matters, with assigned probability percentages for each prediction.
8 min read 1,207 words
A thread through the archive
forecasting
Essays tagged “forecasting”. Follow an idea across the archive.
Essays on forecasting
89 essaysSSC
2018 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2018 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and discussing factors that affected his performance.
12 min read 1,852 words
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Predictions For 2018
Scott Alexander shares his 100 predictions for 2018 on topics like politics, economics, technology, and personal goals, with assigned probabilities for each.
10 min read 1,435 words
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2017 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2017 predictions, analyzing his accuracy and calibration across different confidence levels.
14 min read 2,077 words
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Why Not More Excitement About Prediction Aggregation?
Scott Alexander examines the underutilization of prediction aggregation platforms like Metaculus, exploring potential reasons and expressing surprise at their lack of widespread adoption.
7 min read 931 words
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Predictions For 2017
Scott Alexander presents 105 predictions for 2017 on topics ranging from world events to personal life, each with an assigned probability.
9 min read 1,346 words
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2016 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2016 predictions, finding good overall calibration with slight underconfidence at 70% probability, consistent with previous years.
11 min read 1,634 words
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List Of Passages I Highlighted In My Copy Of “Superforecasting”
Scott Alexander shares and comments on highlights from Philip Tetlock's 'Superforecasting', discussing forecasting, cognitive biases, and organizational effectiveness.
29 min read 4,490 words
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Book Review: Superforecasting
Scott Alexander reviews 'Superforecasting' by Philip Tetlock, discussing the traits of highly accurate predictors and the book's validation of rationalist techniques.
14 min read 2,156 words
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2015 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates the accuracy of his 2015 predictions, finding overall good calibration and considering it a successful year.
7 min read 991 words
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On Overconfidence
Scott Alexander discusses the problem of overconfidence in probability estimates, arguing that extreme certainty is rarely justified, especially for complex future predictions.
30 min read 4,625 words
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2014 Predictions: Calibration Results
Scott Alexander evaluates his 2014 predictions, finding himself well-calibrated across various confidence levels, and jokingly declares himself trustworthy on all matters.
7 min read 974 words
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The Guardian vs. Induction
Scott Alexander criticizes a Guardian article's flawed reasoning in claiming 'Limits to Growth' accurately predicts economic collapse, comparing it to the philosophical 'grue-bleen induction problem'.
9 min read 1,374 words
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Predictions For 2014
Scott Alexander lists 60 predictions for 2014 across global events, online communities, and personal life, assigning probabilities to each.
6 min read 908 words